CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-15T08:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-15T08:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30891/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen due West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is EUV wave seen beyond the SW limb starting at 2024-05-15T08:18Z in SDO AIA 171/193. Widely opening field lines with northern deflection seen on or just beyond the SW limb at an apparent latitude of S15 (before deflection). This CME overlaps heavily with CME: 2024-05-15T08:48Z. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-14T10:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T12:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T18:35Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -7.00 hour(s)
Difference: -5.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-05-17T19:40Z
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